Posts Tagged ‘penny stocks’

By Jonas Elmerraji, Penny Stock Fortunes

There’s no question about it — penny stocks can bring home some of the biggest gains in the investment world. But those tiny companies can also bring along quite a bit of risk. In fact, one of the biggest questions we get here at Penny Sleuth HQ is: “Can you tell me if XYZ Corp. is legit?” And while we can’t give out personalized investment advice, we can give you the tools to determine whether you’re investing in a business with serious profit potential or a scamster’s shell game…

Here’s how to know if your next penny stock play is legit…

For many investors, the idea that a stock could be representing itself incorrectly is unthinkable. After all, we’ve got the SEC, the exchanges — like NYSE and NASDAQ — and independent auditors taking a look at every filing that a company puts out to shareholders. But in the world of microcap stocks, many of those same protections just aren’t there.

While Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was created, in part, to protect investors from nefarious activities in the stock market, the countless securities scandals of the last couple of years have shown us that the agency simply doesn’t have the resources to make sure that the smallest companies are reporting accurately. And in fact, many of the smallest microcap stocks are completely exempt from reporting to the SEC.

Serious listing requirements (almost always) ensure that stocks trading on major exchanges are legitimate businesses, but for stocks that trade OTC or on the Pink Sheets, the requirements to get shares trading are slim to none.

And while most investors think of audited financials as a safeguard that keeps a company’s financials accurate, many companies also aren’t required to get their books audited because of their size.

Even if you’re thinking about investing in a Pink Sheets stock that’s exempt from registering with the SEC and getting an audit performed, you might still be looking at a perfectly good penny stock investment…but you have to do your homework.

Verify the Business

The first step to determining whether a penny stock is legitimate is to verify that the business exists and does what you think it does.

You can start off by entering the stock’s ticker on a major financial site — like Google Finance — and checking out the description of the company. Those descriptions come from SEC filings, so you can generally trust what they say since thanks to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, it’s a felony for management to lie on company filings.

Also, log onto the SEC’s website and look for company filings to get the full look at a company’s operations. And don’t forget to look at its ticker…an “E” at the end means that the company is delinquent in providing its regulatory filings — a very big red flag.

For companies small enough to not file with the SEC, ask your broker for a copy of the company’s “Rule 15c2-11 file.” In it, you’ll find a slew of information that the company was required to provide to prove their exempt status.

Check the Auditor

When you’re reading a company’s financials on the SEC website, look for the audit opinion (generally near the end of a 10-K annual report filing). It’s a statement from the independent auditors that explains the steps an auditor took to verify a company’s financials as well as whether the financials are accurate in their opinion.

Checking who the auditor is makes a big difference too. Bernie Madoff’s “independent” auditor was neither — he trusted Madoff too, blindly signing off on the scamster’s financials and losing millions of his own in the process. Checking into the accountant’s CPA firm would have showed that it was a tiny storefront with only one CPA and without the manpower to audit a multi-billion dollar financial firm.

Getting audited by one of the “big four” accounting firms — PricewaterhouseCoopers, Deloitte, KPMG, and Ernst & Young — is generally the domain of big blue chips that can afford to have prestigious accounting firms handle the audit, so don’t stress if the auditor’s name doesn’t look familiar. Take the time to research who the auditor is, though, and whether they’re qualified to handle a company audit. A quick Google search should solve that…

Give Them a Call

Hard-to-find contact information is another red flag that should be watched out for. Since most companies are constantly on the lookout for new business, their sales team should at least be easily accessible. If you have concerns about whether or not the company is legit, go ahead and call the phone number on their website. If you can’t find a number or address, check back on the SEC website — companies have to include their corporate contact information on the cover of all 10-K and 10-Q filings.

New technology has also made it much easier to verify a business’s contact information. Just type in a company’s address into Google Maps, and select “Street View,” and you can actually see the building where its offices are located. If the offices for a publicly traded stock are showing up as someone’s home or a mailbox rental store, be very wary of going forward.

Follow the Money

If you really want to know about a company, you have to follow the money — its customers…

For any company that markets its products to consumers, a quick web search should give you an idea of how well — or poorly — the company is treating the people who use its services. Reading customer experiences will also give you an idea of whether or not people are jibing with the company’s offerings.

Googling your way to customer experiences isn’t always an option, especially when a company caters to enterprise or government clients. In these cases, where more money is generally involved, lawsuits are more likely as a result of business disputes. Check an online legal database — like the U.S. PACER System — to see whether your potential microcap investment is being sued by customers.

Check for Promotions

It’s possible for a company to be legitimate while the news that “independent parties” are touting isn’t. These so called “stock promoters” are publishing faux research reports and stock recommendations in hopes that investors will catch on to the penny stocks they’re selling. They do this through websites and newsletters that seem legitimate on the surface, but are essentially nothing more than schemes to get people to buy these stocks.

While we’ve never accepted money to write about any stock here at the Sleuth, some in the industry do… And believe it or not, it’s completely legal as far as the SEC is concerned.

There are a few ways that you can tell whether a stock’s being pumped by a promoter. For starters, go to the horse’s mouth — check out StockPromoters.com — the site features a listing of which stocks are paying for which promoters, as well as what the promoters are getting in return.

Promoters aren’t ashamed about what they do — they want companies to know how good they are at their jobs…that’s why they’re so easy to spot.

More Homework, More Profits

To be sure, doing the research is tough and time consuming. But it’s also the only way to be completely sure that the next penny stock play you’re putting your hard earned money on the line for is legit. Small stocks have some of the greatest gain potential out there — and if you know what to look for, you can make sure that you don’t get burned in the process of pursuing profits.

I found an interesting article that relates to trading penny stocks. See what you think. It is about a service called J.E.D.I. Trader.

As the market bottoms, it creates new opportunities – here are several.

There is nothing more exciting then grabbing a penny stock and riding it for huge gains!

In this report, we’ll scan the market for such opportunities. With several thousand stocks in the market, finding trades is a challenge for every investor.

Penny stocks, by my definition are stocks that trade under $5 per share. And while these stocks are ‘high’ risk, and I wouldn’t allocate the same capital that you would a normal portfolio position, they are also high reward, so you can take much smaller risk amounts of capital – and the rewards can be worth it.

These are not ‘bad’ stocks. They’ve just been forgotten by the market. When the market goes through a bearish move, liquidity comes out of the market. It can be a hedge or mutual fund that simply needs to meet redemptions, and are forced to sell holdings, good or bad. These smaller stocks see their prices drop – significantly.

Trading tactics:

Trading these issues can be more difficult. The shares are much more volatile, so you may not be able to utilize tight stops. They need a little more room to move.

The smaller cap stocks can be easily manipulated – which can be a good thing if it is to the upside.

The best returns are going to be as the market re-inflates – when liquidity returns, as they say, a rising tide will lift all boats – and it is no more evident than in these low priced issues. The liquidity effect is so evident here as mutual and hedge funds put new money back to work – usually in the same issues that they were forced to sell. You see, some of these low priced stocks are not bad companies, it is merely a case when there is not enough liquidity to go around, and it has to get pulled from somewhere. And vice versa.

If you are going to use a stop, I’d apply the 3:1 rule off your projection- so if you think you can obtain 60% profits, which isn’t unheard of, you can keep your stop around the 20% level.

Patterns to look for:

These stocks are just like every other stock in the market – so you can apply the same tactics that you apply with other stocks. Here are a few points to consider though.

First and foremost, stocks that go through a large move lower, will tend to have a symmetrical move back up as they re-inflate with the market.

Break out trading – this is my favorite play. Low priced stocks will peak out at a level or resistance. Place a BUY STOP MARKET ORDER just above resistance. This will get you in the trade.

Trend trading – to employ longer term tactics, look at a weekly chart and use a 10 week moving average as your stop. Try to enter on a break of the 10-week moving average. However, if you miss it, you can wait for a pull back to the 10 week before entering.

Pattern Trading – like break out trading, I’d employ a strategy to enter on the break of the pattern. Remember, you also want to see the pattern break on volume. So if you enter and the break is not on volume, then tighten your stop. It doesn’t mean that the trade isn’t going to be successful. It just means the likelihood of success is less.

Swing Trading – The interesting thing about penny stocks during an advance phase, is that they tend to step higher, so you may not get the swing you are looking for. Look for this stepping action and try to buy near where the step meets the riser.
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Other considerations:

Float is still a consideration with Penny Stocks. Low float stocks can move even more than high float stocks. This is definitely something to consider based on your age. Younger investors should be looking at smaller companies with more potential to grow.

Why? Because 100 shares in a young growth company can become 6400 shares after the 6 stock splits the top growth companies normally goes through over a decade. Older investors, looking for more stability (yes, even in penny stocks), should look at larger companies.

Capital allocation strategies:

There’s a saying in Wall Street that goes “Buy when they sleep, sell when they leap.” If you’re investing – obviously you can spread around smaller amounts of capital to more potential trades and give yourself a higher likelihood of capturing a larger gain. But the more you spread your capital around, the less you will make.

Everyone’s perspective is slightly different. What I should be doing is different from you and different from the person next to you. Some seek more growth and some seek more stable income.

Capital allocation is such an individual concern based on your own financial position.

However, one basic example and strategy that you can employ is – say you were to invest 10k normally in a stock. Instead, take that 10k and divide it up into 10 potential trades. Identify 10 stocks to trade off our list and place your conditional orders. As each order gets executed, then employ a strategy to reallocate the capital in the orders that haven’t been executed into the stocks that have been executed and are moving higher. For example, if 3 positions are entered, make it a rule to double your investment every week that the stocks close higher. That will focus your 10k into the stocks that are moving higher.
The J.E.D.I. Trader Stocks, Options and Options on futures advisory service (up over 100% in 2008)

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